Currency Prediction Software (CPS) of market FOREX


Here the result of work of First demo version CPS for a prediction of exchange rates on a basis Markoff’s transitive probabilities is submitted. In the First Variant 3 step procedure of calculation is realized. Time of calculation small. In the first variant it is impossible to estimate dynamism of a prediction an error.

In column Predict calculations of expected rate USD/EURO for the next 15-minutes are submitted. The probability Pmax an expected condition i, is maximal for all transitions    j=>i,  j=0..M-1. In last column of the table values of prediction mistakes (Err [%]) in percentage.
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Development of server applications for predicting exchange rates

In column Real the data of quotations russian.mgforex.com are submitted.

The Software (the server CGI-application on Perl) works as follows. After start of the CGI-application, the program addresses to local text database (DB) of exchange rates. Simultaneously, the CGI-application fills up this local DB. Updating is made by reading last data from server russian.mgforex.com. Then values DB "are sweeped" to Markoff's a circuit i,j on the basis of which values the matrix of transitive probabilities pi,j is formed. Using property of memory Markoff's circuits Pt(i,j), the software estimates size of forthcoming event - rate USD/EURO on 15-minutes forward, i.e. for a moment t+1 and estimates probability of this event pi, where t - 15-minutes period. The probability pi, a condition expected after 15-minutes i, is the maximal probability for all transitions j=>i,    j=0..M-1, where    M - value of the greatest transition.